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Dec. 7, 2009

ABI Research just published some new data and the numbers reveal that the overall market share for Linux on netbooks is currently at about 32.1 percent, with a little over 11 million units preloaded with Linux shipping in 2009. That's actually a good increase from the estimates forecast in 2008.

However, Jeffrey Orr of ABI makes clear that dual boot machines and laptops that are purchased with Windows but later have Linux loaded do not count in the numbers.

That number is pure Linux sales. This data confirms comments made first by Jay Pinkert and later by Todd Finch of Dell that about 31 percent of their netbooks sales are Linux machines and that there is no higher return rate for Linux systems than there is for ones sold with Windows preloaded.

Currently, ABI Research is still holding to their predictions that Linux will pull even with Windows on netbooks in about three years from now.

But ARM-powered netbooks and smartbooks should also begin appearing on the market in quantity in early 2010 according to Orr.

"In 2010, there will be a lot of netbooks shipping on ARM Cortex-A8-based processors, and by that we're including the nVidia Tegra and Qualcomm Snapdragon, which are essentially Cortex-A8 architectures," said Pinkert.

"You've got Texas Instruments and Freescale already out there, and you also have Ericsson, Marvell, and Broadcom getting involved. I believe we're going to see them all on netbooks."

"They're not all going to have the same level of success, but they will be there, with faster boot times and better battery life than the Atom, and unless Microsoft does something about it, they will almost all be running Linux," added Pinkert.

Considering the surprising growth in 2008 and the fact that ARM-powered netbooks and smartbooks, which cannot and will not run any Windows version other than Windows CE, are just around the corner, I have to wonder if Stephen Lim had it right all along.

His prediction certainly now seems to be within the range of what is possible.

One thing is certain: those proclaiming Linux is dead on netbooks and in the larger desktop market have missed the mark by a very wide margin, and that is sad, since it may have thrown off the numbers on their backs in the beginning...

And now the time has come to finally set the record straight once and for all: Not only is Linux here to stay in the desktop market, it will also eat up a growing and substantial market share of Windows, even the now apparently more popular Windows 7 OS.

Microsoft, take note!

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Source: LNT.

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